Nokia, which had its credit rating cut to “junk” status by Standard & Poor’s last week, first signalled its intention to sell Vertu in December, and recently said it plans to dispose of “non-core assets”


Cellphone maker Nokia is in talks to sell its UK luxury subsidiary Vertu, which hand makes some of the world’s most expensive mobile phones, a source familiar with the company’s strategy said on Monday.

Earlier the Financial Times reported that talks with private equity group Permira were at an advanced stage on a possible sale which would raise about €200 million ($265 million).

Vertu’s cellphones can feature crystal displays and sapphire keys, costing more than 200,000 pounds ($320,000) due to the precious metal components.

Nokia, which had its credit rating cut to “junk” status by Standard & Poor’s last week, first signalled its intention to sell Vertu in December, and recently said it plans to dispose of “non-core assets”.

Nokia, once the world’s dominant mobile phone provider, declined to comment, while Vertu and Permira were not available for comment.

The FT report, published on its website on Sunday, cited people familiar with the talks as saying Goldman Sachs was advising on the possible sale, but said the outcome was not yet certain.

EQT, the Northern European private equity group, has also been in talks about buying the company, although those close to the process, cited by the FT, say that these are not progressing at this stage.

Brushing aside the concerns over impact of the proposed changes tax laws, commerce and industry minister Anand Sharma on Sunday said Indian economy is strong and exuded confidence that foreign investments will continue to flow into the country.

"Investment and taxation are two separate issues", he said, when asked whether the introduction of General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR) will hurt foreign investments. "For FDI, we have a policy which is stable and progressive and there have been changes made in the recent past which have gone down well with investors", the minister said.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee in his Budget for 2012-13 has proposed to introduce GAAR to check tax evasion by overseas investors. The proposal evoked criticism from institutional investors which felt the move would hurt investment.

Sharma, while recalling the initiatives taken by the government to attract FDI, said, “Some of the initiatives which are under implementation are projects like Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) and National Manufacturing Investment Zones (NMIZs).

“These are seriously engaging the interest of our foreign partners and we are hopeful that major developed countries, which are our economic partners, will be investing both in technology and in establishment in partnership with Indian industry”, he said.

On impact of global crisis on the domestic economy, the minister admitted that they would have some impact but the Indian economy was strong enough to withstand the problems.

“If we see our economy objectively, we are being affected by international crisis specially euro crisis and high oil prices. It affects specially exports and imports, thus, impacting the overall current account and trade account. But in actual sense, our economy is strong”, the minister said.

With crude oil and gold alone accounting for over 44% of total import bill of $489 billion and exports losing steam mid-way, India ended the fiscal 2011-12 with the highest ever trade deficit of $185 billion causing a “serious” challenge for the economy.

MSCI Asia ex-Japan steady, Nikkei opens down 0.1%; dollar off highs but steady
Asian shares steadied on Friday and the dollar took a breather after its recent broad rally spurred some profit taking, but a fresh batch of data suggesting the US economy may be picking up momentum underpinned investor sentiment.

The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index was barely changed and Japan’s Nikkei opened down 0.1% after rising to an 8-month high on Thursday.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index on Thursday closed above 1,400 for the first time since June 2008, having risen about 11.5% this year without a major pullback. Some analysts have called for a consolidation while others see ongoing momentum.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares finished 0.35% higher, and up 10% this year to nearly recover from last year’s 10.7% drop.

“The market is still going through a relief rally more than chasing a new trend on global growth,” Barclays Capital analysts said. “We are getting into profit-taking territory,” they added.

The number of Americans claiming new jobless benefits fell back to a four-year low last week, while the New York Federal Reserve said on Thursday its Empire State general business conditions index rose to its highest since June 2010 last month. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s business activity index also showed manufacturing kept growing in the region this month.

“The New York Fed, Philadelphia Fed and the jobless claims data overnight were again favourable, so we can expect to see strong support for markets,” said Yumi Nishimura, senior technical analyst at Daiwa Securities.

The dollar stood at ¥83.40, retreating from a 11-month high of 84.17 touched on Thursday, and also off a two-month high against a basket of major currencies of 80.738 hit the previous day. The US currency steadied against the euro at $1.3080, easing from Thursday’s one-month high of $1.3004.

The US economy shows encouraging signs of early expansion but still faces tough challenges that call for measures to create jobs to help restore fiscal sustainability, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday.

Oil rebounded after a sharp decline on Thursday when Reuters, citing two British sources, reported that Britain decided to cooperate with the United States in an agreement to release oil from government-controlled strategic reserves.

US crude was up 0.4% to $105.50 a barrel on Friday, after settling down 0.3% at $105.11 a barrel. US crude futures fell to a session low of $103.78 on Thursday. Brent crude fell 1.14% to settle at $123.55 a barrel on Thursday.

Asian credit markets were slightly firmer early on Friday, with the spread on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index narrowing by 2 basis points.

Investment banking drags down Barclays Q4 profit

Barclays reported a pretax profit of £5.9 billion for 2011, down 3% on the year and below analysts’ forecast of 6.1 billion.

Barclays said its key investment bank arm ended last year with its worst quarter for three years as the euro zone debt crisis hit bond trading activity, dragging the British bank’s annual profit down on the year before. 

Barclays, Britain’s fourth-biggest bank by market value, on Friday reported a pretax profit of £5.9 billion ($9.4 billion) for 2011, down 3% on the year and below analysts’ forecast of 6.1 billion, according to a company poll.
Income at investment bank arm Barclays Capital fell to £1.8 billion in the fourth quarter, down 19% on the previous three months.

Gujarat International Finance Tech-City or GIFT is an under-construction city in the Indian state of Gujarat. Work on the proposed Rs 78,000-crore nano city has now started, and the first occupant may move in by March.

By the time the first phase is completed in three-and-a-half years, this special economic zone (SEZ) would have tried out, on a small scale, some contemporary urban design ideas.

GIFT would have a command and control centre to monitor the IT infrastructure and respond quickly during emergencies (a fire anywhere, for example, will trigger an automatic response). The city will use the energy-efficient district cooling system instead of air-conditioning.

It will also use an automated waste collection system that sucks away garbage from buildings at high speed. Says GIFT Director Ramakant Jha: "We will now try on a pilot scale many technologies that will be used when the city is developed fully."

District cooling, which uses chilled water to cool buildings, is being tried in a few places such as Toronto, Cornell University and Masdar City in Abu Dhabi. Its proponents say the technology consumes 90% less energy compared with traditional air-conditioning.

In automated vacuum waste collection systems, garbage is sorted out and then sucked away at high speed through underground tubes to a central location, which can be as far as 20 km away. It is being used in cities such as London, Montreal, Stockholm and Barcelona. No Indian city has these technologies yet.

GIFT was conceived in 2007 and the idea was developed initially by a set of consultants such as McKinsey and urban development specialist Fairwood Consultants. It is being planned as a top-notch global financial centre to rival London, New York and Hong Kong.


The stock exchanges of London, Tokyo and Singapore have evinced interest in setting up offices in GIFT, as have many Indian banks. Singapore Co-operation Enterprises, a government agency, has just signed an agreement with GIFT to develop a banking enclave.

"Liberty to transact in foreign currency at the IFSC in GIFT will significantly raise foreign firms' investment and participation in India," says SS Thakur, former chairman of HDFC and former controller of foreign exchange in the Reserve Bank of India. Similar financial centres in Hong Kong, Dubai, China, Malaysia, the UK (London) and the US (New York) contribute 5-60% of GDP of their respective countries. GIFT is expected to create 10 lakh jobs in 10 years.

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Macquarie Research has cut its 2012-13 GDP forecast to 6.9% from 7.9% citing lack of policy reforms and lagged impact of monetary policy tightening
The knives are out and they are chopping economic growth forecasts. Each day brings more news which confirms the trend of a slowing economy. The fact that economic growth will slow down in the current financial year and the government will miss its fiscal deficit target is a no-brainer.

Now, the pundits are gazing still further into the future. The picture they see is gloomier. Macquarie Research has cut its 2012-13 GDP forecast to 6.9% from 7.9% citing lack of policy reforms and lagged impact of monetary policy tightening.

Tanvee Gupta Jain of Macquarie said in a note: Incorporating the lack of policy reforms and the lagged impact of monetary tightening in the context of a continued weak global economic environment, we are now downgrading our FY13 GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 7.9% ‘with downside risks’ estimated earlier. While the global environment is likely to remain uncertain, we believe domestic factors will dominate the growth outlook.

Macquarie is not the only one. Ambit Capital on 17 October has cut its next year GDP growth forecast to 6.2% from an earlier estimate of 7.2%.

Ritika Mankar of Ambit Capital said in a note: We are cutting our GDP growth forecast … as the persistence of macroeconomic uncertainty translates into weak investment demand growth which in turn affects industrial sector growth and services sector growth.

Note that economists are shying away from cutting current year forecasts. Motilal Oswal in its report dated 11 November has downgraded the current year GDP growth estimate to 7.2% from 7.6% earlier. BNP Paribas has sounded even more pessimistic. It expects the economy to witness ‘hardish landing.’

Richard Iley of BNP Paribas said in a note: While any marked improvement in WPI inflation is still a few months away, the latest activity data confirms that our long-held expectation for a hardish landing for the economy is now materialising. Given our forecast for a US recession and stagnation in the euro zone, GDP growth looks on course to drop below 7% in the coming quarters.

Richard Iley adds further: The risk is that the RBI’s revised growth projection is still too optimistic. Our GDP forecasts have been well below consensus since at least early summer. Current targets are for growth of just 7.2% for 2011-12 and 7.1% for 2012-13.

A shift in speculative activity from equity cash market to derivatives market could be a factor, a Morgan Stanley​ study says

How long have investors in the Indian markets been holding on to stocks in the backdrop of high volatility and tepid returns in the past four years? Morgan Stanley has come out with an interesting report which addresses this question.

The study finds that investors are holding on to equity investments much longer now than they were during the bull phase between 2003 and 2007.

Back then, the average holding period was around 20 months, or a little over a year-and-a-half. It now stands at around 35 months, or nearly three years, having almost doubled compared with the bull phase. To be sure, the rise has been gradual since mid-2003, but has accelerated since 2009.

The average holding period for foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who account for a large part of trading in the cash market, had steadily come down to as low as 14 months by the end of the bull market in early 2008. Since 2009, it started rising sharply and now stands at 22 months, Morgan Stanley’s calculations show. This is the highest level for FIIs since 2004.

Why are investors holding on to stocks longer now than they did during the bull phase between 2003 and 2007, when the Indian markets rose by over 500%?

Morgan Stanley points out that one factor may be the shift of speculative activity from the equity cash market to the derivatives market.

Cash market turnover now amounts to less than 10% of derivatives market turnover. The extent of intraday trading in the cash market has come down. With less speculative activity in the cash market, the calculation of investors’ holding period would naturally be influenced.

Even so, it’s interesting to note that investors, including FIIs, are holding on to Indian stocks for longer periods.

In the past, such a rise in the level of holding period of stocks had occurred during bear markers and right before the onset of a bull phase, such as between mid-2000 and 2003.

But with the uncertainty in the global economy, and considering that Indian markets have already doubled from their lows during the financial crisis, it seems unlikely that they are on the verge of another bull run.

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The benchmark emerging market index is in negative territory, having fallen more than three quarters of a percent
London: A month into 2011, one of the biggest swings in asset flows has been the outperformance of previously lagging developed market equities against once red-hot emerging ones.

The chances are that this rotation by investors, encouraged by shifting valuations, inflation concerns and growth spurts in some developed economies, will remain in place for a while -- perhaps six months -- but it is not likely to become a permanent fixture.

Nothing has happened to dilute the overarching view that emerging markets are a long-term, strategic growth story, albeit with somewhat heightened political risk -- as is now being seen in Egypt and Ivory Coast.

Standard & Poor’s cutting of Japan’s sovereign debt rating on Thursday, meanwhile, was a stark reminder that, in contrast to emerging economies, many developed markets continue suffer from government bank balance problems.

But for the time being, the tale of the tape is clear -- the flows are into developed markets and away from emerging.

So far this year, MSCI’s developed market stock index has risen a healthy 3.2% -- healthy in the sense that in the highly unlikely event this rate continues, developed market stocks would have the best compounded gain in at least 40 years.

The benchmark emerging market index, however, is in negative territory, having fallen more than three quarters of a percent.

Individual country indexes show the same pattern. The US S&P 500 is up more than 3% for the year while India’s BSE Sensex has lost around 10%.

The outperformance goes further. On a day-by-day basis last year, developed markets outperformed emerging markets on just 47% of occasions. So far this year, they have done so around 63% of the time.

And in terms of beta, a gauge of how a security reacts to moves in the market, emerging markets are moving closer to being in lockstep with developed markets -- meaning that at the moment there is little to be gained for the extra risk they may carry. Emerging market beta is currently close to 1.0, compared with 1.8 about five years ago.

Buggins’ Turn

Three things have brought this about and the issue for investors is how long each will remain a driver.

First, the popularity of emerging markets has made them a very crowded trade, meaning that prices have arguably got ahead of themselves.

“They had a good run over the past couple of years and the valuations are now looking more full,” said Jason Hepner, investment director at Standard Life Investments.

Second, as a result of their recent growth, many emerging markets are coming up against strong inflationary headwinds which are prompting central banks to enter a tightening cycle.

Food price inflation, a growing issue, is likely to have more impact on emerging markets than on developed ones.

Credit Suisse estimates that food represents about 34% of an Asia ex-Japan consumer price basket. In the United States, it accounts for less than half that. Thirdly, some leading developed economics, particularly the US and Germany, are showing strength.

Fund flow analysts EPFR Global say that the week up to 21 January was the sixth of net inflows to US equity funds that they track out of the past seven, amounting to total net inflows of $17.3 billion.

It compares with net $49 billion outflows from the sector in 2010.

Six Months

So will it last? The indications are that it won’t and that most of the embrace of developed markets has been tactical, a short-term move to grab an opportunity.

Goldman Sachs, for example, has been telling its clients to emphasis US and Japanese stocks in the first half of the year and to go back to emerging markets (along with European) in the second half.

“A cyclical slowdown in parts of EM driven by tighter policy is a concern but the secular trends and the growth leadership of EM is not in doubt,” Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman’s head of European portfolio strategy, said in a note.

There is also a likelihood that some of the factors putting investors off emerging markets at the moment will reverse.

William De Vijlder, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, reckons inflation pressures will ease in emerging markets along with uncertainty about monetary policy, in part because there is little evidence of China overheating.

Six months should bring down the cost of emerging market equities versus developing as well.

“The appetite for emerging should pick up again. The relative valuation should by then have improved,” he said.

The trigger may be the developed economies. If they slow -- and US recent data has been disappointing, not to mention Europe and Japan’s fiscal problems -- emerging will start to look better more quickly.

If, on the other hand, the US economy takes off, emerging markets might take a back seat for a bit longer.