Showing posts with label RBI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RBI. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
The knives are out and they are chopping economic growth forecasts. Each day brings more news which confirms the trend of a slowing economy. The fact that economic growth will slow down in the current financial year and the government will miss its fiscal deficit target is a no-brainer.
Now, the pundits are gazing still further into the future. The picture they see is gloomier. Macquarie Research has cut its 2012-13 GDP forecast to 6.9% from 7.9% citing lack of policy reforms and lagged impact of monetary policy tightening.
Tanvee Gupta Jain of Macquarie said in a note: Incorporating the lack of policy reforms and the lagged impact of monetary tightening in the context of a continued weak global economic environment, we are now downgrading our FY13 GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 7.9% ‘with downside risks’ estimated earlier. While the global environment is likely to remain uncertain, we believe domestic factors will dominate the growth outlook.
Macquarie is not the only one. Ambit Capital on 17 October has cut its next year GDP growth forecast to 6.2% from an earlier estimate of 7.2%.
Ritika Mankar of Ambit Capital said in a note: We are cutting our GDP growth forecast … as the persistence of macroeconomic uncertainty translates into weak investment demand growth which in turn affects industrial sector growth and services sector growth.
Note that economists are shying away from cutting current year forecasts. Motilal Oswal in its report dated 11 November has downgraded the current year GDP growth estimate to 7.2% from 7.6% earlier. BNP Paribas has sounded even more pessimistic. It expects the economy to witness ‘hardish landing.’
Richard Iley of BNP Paribas said in a note: While any marked improvement in WPI inflation is still a few months away, the latest activity data confirms that our long-held expectation for a hardish landing for the economy is now materialising. Given our forecast for a US recession and stagnation in the euro zone, GDP growth looks on course to drop below 7% in the coming quarters.
Richard Iley adds further: The risk is that the RBI’s revised growth projection is still too optimistic. Our GDP forecasts have been well below consensus since at least early summer. Current targets are for growth of just 7.2% for 2011-12 and 7.1% for 2012-13.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011 Comments
Monday, July 26, 2010
The council has already moved up the forecast for wholesale price inflation at the end of March 2011 from RBI’s 5.5% to 6.5%
The Prime Minister’s economic advisory council’s candid comments on the need for monetary tightening are clearly aimed at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which will hold its quarterly review of monetary policy on Tuesday. The council hasn’t toed the party line of a “calibrated exit” from monetary stimulus enthusiastically espoused by both the central bank and the government. Instead, it has said the recovery is strong and, therefore, “in the backdrop of inflation rates that are more than twice the comfort zone, it is important that monetary policy completes the process of exit…” It couldn’t have been more explicit.
The council has already moved up the forecast for wholesale price inflation at the end of March 2011 from RBI’s 5.5% to 6.5%. With expected inflation at 6.5% and the current repo rate at 5.5%, the policy rate is a negative 1%. So it’s hard to see how a policy of “calibrated exit” will work, especially since non-food manufacturing inflation was at 7.3% year-on-year in June. Deutsche Bank AG has a chart, reproduced here, that shows the gap between real growth and real interest rates is very high.
The stock market is, therefore, sanguine that high growth will offset any timorous attempts to tighten monetary policy, with none of the so-called rate-sensitive sectors showing any big changes in the run-up to the monetary policy announcement. While the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex moved up 0.98% last week and 2.26% in the past one month, look at the gains in the rate-sensitive indices: the BSE Bankex up 0.83% last week and 4.52% in the past one month; the realty index up 0.72% and 9.47%, respectively, and the auto index up 0.92% and 1.56%, respectively. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government security is at 7.68%—here, too, the rise has been only 4 basis points in the past week. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. The markets love “calibrated” tightening.
Monday, July 26, 2010 Comments
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